Prior to yesterday’s match, the IBM SlamTracker provided Daniil Medvedev with a meagre 19% likelihood of win. The scoreline definitely shows something to the contrary. Medvedev delivered an emphatic performance to claim a spot in the Finals against Novak Djokovic. As he mentioned in the post-match interview, he had to deliver a 12/10 performance to defeat Alcaraz and so he did.
Medvedev’s performance throughout the match was rock-solid and left Alcaraz little room to punch holes. Facing only one break of serve throughout the match, he won an impressive 81% of all his First Serve points. Additionally, the World No. 1 had a tough time reading & returning Medvedev’s first serves.
Follwing is the story of how the match unfolded:
Set 1:
Both players delivered an impressive performance in the first set going toe-to-toe to start off the match. Alcaraz Serve & Volleyed 11 times and won 10 of them. This was perhaps in a bid to keep the service points short.
Medvedev also boasted an impressive stat of 39% Service Winners, showing power and consistency.
Displaying a fantastic return performance, Medvedev got back 81% returns back in play in comparison to Alcaraz’s 67%. This is partly due to his deep return position and a good read on the Alcaraz serve. As seen in the point below, Medvedev guessed the serve wrongly, but due to his deep return position, he was atleast able to get the Return back into play.
However, the formidable Alcaraz Forehand started displaying signs of wear, resulting in uncharacteristic errors from the Forehand wing both on the returns as well as baseline strokes. The Alcaraz Forehand Return made a whopping 35% errors in the set!
Medvedev also managed to capitalize well on the shorter 0-4 points winning 35 in comparison to Alcaraz’s 24 in the first set.
| Daniil Medvedev | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 Won | 35 | 24 |
| 5-8 Won | 5 | 6 |
| 9+ Won | 3 | 5 |
Alcaraz got little success off his Drop-Shots winning 3/6 Drop-Shots in the set.
The fate of the Set was decided in the Tiebreaker where a weak Drop-Volley and a Forehand Error by Alcaraz gave Medvedev two mini-breaks to close it out.
Set 2:
The second set started with a break of serve for Alcaraz due to a Drop-Shot error. Medvedev backed the break with a comfortable hold of serve at love.
Medvedev read the serve very well getting maximum returns back into play. As seen below, Medvedev moves to the right before the serve in the Deuce Court, putting pressure on Alcaraz serve.
Alcaraz managed to hold the game at 0:3 with multiple deuces. However, Medvedev won the next three games securing another break of serve by hitting a brilliant Backhand Passing Shot up the line.
Set 3:
Alcaraz reduced baseline errors dramatically in set from 22% errors in the second set to 11% errors in the third. Playing consistently, Alcaraz used the Serve & Volley effectively winning 6 out of 8 points.
Alcaraz secured the sole break of the match in the fourth game hitting a magnificent lob to a weak Medvedev approach shot.
Alcaraz served well in the Deuce court winning 8/8 of the wide serves as shown in the heatmap below. He also managed to keep Medvedev guessing in the Ad court by mixing up the T and Wide serves.
Set 4:
In the final set of the match, Alcaraz decided to throw the kitchen sink at Medvedev and Serve & Volleyed 15 times! More than a third of all the Serve & Volleys in the match from Alcaraz came in the first few games of the fourth set. Alcaraz claimed 10 out of the 15 points.
Medvedev eventually secured the break in the 5th game by reading the Serve & Volley.
Returning magnificently, Medvedev won 60% of all second serve return points. This was partly due to a very predictable serving pattern used by Alcaraz in the final set as seen below.
Conclusion:
Medvedev truly put forward a 12/10 performance in most aspects of the game to win against a formidable opponent such as Carlos Alcaraz. Going after the Alcaraz forehand paid off, eventually breaking it down. Alcaraz could perhaps not generate enough pace and spin in response to the low and flat Medvedev groundstrokes.
The Alcaraz forehand return and groundstrokes were off the mark and he did not look as comfortable as he always is from the Forehand corner of the court.
A Medvedev vs Djokovic final will be very enthralling to watch. Medvedev has beaten Djokovic this year at the Dubai Duty Free Championships.